China Adoption Forecast

This is out current time frame. It gets worse each month. If you are LID with the CCAA you can check out your forecast here www.chinaadoptionforecast.com

Our prediction for LID 2006-11-13
Our best guess - a weighted average of recent CCAA velocities, guessing that CCAA will perform about as well in the future as they are performing now, but might return to previous trends: 2011-02-18
That's our best guess for when you might receive your referral. Just at a guess, we can suppose that the CCAA either speeds up or slows down significantly, and show you those dates. If they speed up: 2009-07-04. And if they slow down: 2014-01-04.
Since China generally sends out referrals in a batch about once per month, your referral date could easily vary +/- one month depending on whether you just get included or just get missed in a particular batch.

14 Months!

Yesterday was our 14 month LID Anniversary. Hopefully we will be out of the Review Room soon. So far, we have not been asked any questions, so hopefully that is a good sign. I was a little bummed earlier this month when referrals came out and they had only matched from Dec 14, 2005 to December 19, 2005 (we are Nov.13, 2006), but I think I have finally come to terms with the wait (yeah, right), and Joe and I plan to continue on our journey to China for our little girl. I know it sounds silly, but giving up now would be like a miscarriage. We have invested too much into this journey to give up now. WE are going to China for Chloe Paige (eventually).

Bye Bye, George

It was a tough decision, but my dad had to find George a new home. George has been sad since Laura passed away at Thanksgiving, and has run away from home several times over the past few weeks, and even gave my father a black eye. The decision was made to have George go to live on a wildlife preserve near Alexandira, LA to be with other ostriches. Bye George, Blaine will miss you. We will come for a visit this summer.

Disney Pictures

I uploaded all of our Disney pictures into an album at shutterfly which can be viewed at www.blaineandchloe.shutterfly.com

Christmas Card

It's a little late, but here is this year's Christmas card. Keep in mind I had them printed up before I knew Joe would be able to come home for two weeks in December.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO ME, and mom too!

Yes, today is my 33rd birthday! It is also my mom's birthday, but I doubt she want me to share her age (she is 61, hehe). At the current rate of referrals, I will be at least 37 years old before we bring Chloe home. I can't even imagine having to wait that long. All I want for my birthday is for the CCAA to start referring at least 15 days a month. Is that too much to ask? I would ask for one month a month, but I really don't want to press my luck.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

I really am not good with this Blogging stuff. I have tons of pictures from Christmas that I have not uploaded, and now tomorrow is New Years Day. Oh well. We had a nice Christmas. Joe had to leave to go back to Iraq the Saturday before Christmas, so we had a mini Christmas the weekend before. Joe wanted to see Blaine's face when he opened his Wii, so Santa came a little early and dropped that present off while Joe was still home. Blaine loves it, and so do we. It is actually a lot of fun. He got a bunch of games with it, but his favorite is the Sports game that came with it. On Christmas Eve my mom and sister came to church with us, and then spent the night to watch Blaine open his other presents from Santa. My dad came over later Christmas morning, and we had our traditional Louisiana Christmas dinner of Gumbo. We were also able to talk to Joe several times throughout the day, and see him on Skype. It wasn't the best Christmas ever, but still memorable. We hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas, and that 2008 will be your best year ever! Bring on the New Year!

Blaine and Santa 2007

LSU Support in Iraq

Christmas Party

Blaine's PK class had their Christmas Party on Tuesday before the play. They played games and opened presents.

Christmas Play

Blaine had his annual Christmas play at school Tuesday night, and all I can say is "Look Out Broadway". My son is not afraid of anything, and enjoys being the center of attention, and that showed loud and clear on this night.

He had to make sure that he sang the LOUDEST

he stood in the middle of the stage directing his friends and telling them they were doing a great job. The more the audience laughed, the more he "acted"

Presenting his gift to the baby Jesus

Waiting to go on stage and waving to his audience (he thought he was the star of the play)

Christmas Tree

Here is this years Christmas tree. My son is a HAM. As soon as the camera comes out he starts striking poses. I think I have created a monster. Ignore the bow on the top of the tree. I couldn't find half of my decorations in the attic (Joe has a mess up there) so I had to use what I had on hand and that was not enough ribbon:)

Review!

Oh my God! We just found out we are in the Review Room! This is our last step before referral. For those that don't know, the Review Room is where they review our Dossier to make sure everything is in order (duh), and if the CCAA has any questions about any of our paperwork they do it at this time. After we pass review, we are pretty much guaranteed to get our baby once our LID date comes up for referral. At this point in time, that is still a long way off, but getting through review will be a load off of my mind, and that is when the REAL shopping is going to start(hehehe).

Today was Blaine's last day of school this year. He doesn't go back to school until January 8th. Joe leaves to go back to Iraq on Saturday. We have had a wonderful two weeks, and Blaine and I are sad to see him go. We won't see him again until July. Oh well, I am sure the time will pass quickly, and that before we know it he will be home for good. Oh happy day! We have so much to look forward to in 2008.

Arlington National Cemetary

Rest easy, sleep well my brothers.
Know the line has held, your job is done.
Rest easy, sleep well.
Others have taken up where you fell, the line has held.
Peace, peace, and farewell...

Readers may be interested to know that these wreaths -- some 10,000 -- are donated by the Worcester Wreath Co. Of Harrington, Maine. The owner, Merrill Worcester, not only provides the wreaths, but covers the trucking expense as well. He's done this since 1992.

Disney

We got back last night and I shipped Blaine off to school first thing this morning, and sent Joe to the airport to pick up his mom. We had a wonderful trip! The Christmas decorations were beautiful, and there were no lines. We even got a room upgrade! Blaine had so much fun he cried in the Taxi on the way to the airport and then again when our plane took off for home. He said he wants to go back in July when his dad gets back from Iraq for good. It was hot enough in December for me, and I have already been in July, and was miserable, thank you very much! Maybe we will go on a Disney Cruise instead. They have one leaving at the end of July 2008 for the Mexican Rivera. Anyway, we had a really great time and I am convinced we went at the perfect time. I will post more pictures later. I have a mountain of laundry to do, and I have to go to the store because we are having a Christmas dinner here tomorrow with Joe's mom and my family since Joe has to leave before Christmas to go back to Iraq. Ta Ta for now.

13 Months!

As of yesterday we have waited 13 months from our LID for Chloe Paige.

Joe's Home!

Joe got in yesterday afternoon and will be home for 15 days of R&R. On Sunday we leave for Disney World. Blaine is so happy to have his daddy home, and has completely forgotten all about me.

The CCAA finally got around to sending out referrals, and they only got through Dec.14, 2005. One week of referrals a month would mean another 4 years of waiting for us. Our agency feels like there will be a speed up of some kind in 2008. I hope so, because it really can't get much slower. Can't change it, so I guess I have to live with it. The time has been going by rather quickly, and we have been planning all kinds of fun things to do in the meantime.

I have almost completely given up on decorating the nursery, and now it looks a little more like the "junk" room. I am not even sure if I like the bedding anymore, or the color of the walls (never really liked the color of the walls, but Joe would kill me if I asked him to repaint it;)). I am thinking of taking it in a whole new direction.

I thought combining the two blogs would help with me with posting more often, but I really think it has been the other way around. I guess I am just not motivated, and too busy to think about it. I do still spend way too much time reading other China blogs. If I gave that up, I could probably find enough time to repaint the nursery myself;)

Well, I guess it is back to packing. It looks like the weather will be sunny and hot while we are in Disney, so I guess I can forget about packing for cooler weather and pack those bathing suits after all.

Stuff

I found a bunch of books on Overstock.com


This is Playful Patty, I found her at K-Mart for about $8


It's a Lady Bug My Little Poney!


I made this tutu for Chloe but Blaine would not try it on, so I had to use the Panda.





These are some of the things I have purchased for Chloe recently. It is a lot of stuff for a child who probably hasn't even been conceived yet, but I like to shop, and I especially like to get stuff on sale! Don't worry honey, this is all I bought, I promise;)

1 year

One year, twelve months, either way I thought Chloe would be here by now. I don't know what to say because I have said it all before, and no one wants to hear it anymore, so I will just say this.... Tomorrow is our 1 year LIDaversary! Yeah us!

China Adopt Talk Post

I am posting this on my Blog from China Adopt Talk (Rumor Queen), so friends and family can see what we are up against, and why it is taking so long for us to get a referral for Chloe.


-----Heartfelt letter from an agency
November 8th, 2007

As has been reported in the forum, a respected agency has done some research, and sent a letter to their clients with some answers. The agency is clear to say that what they are saying is what they believe is true. I’m going to do this in bullet points, with my thoughts in italics (Rumor Queen not me, I have no opinion).

Abandonment is down. Farmers and low income city residents who have one female child get nationwide medical and retirement insurance. This is part of a drive to try to balance the female population. (I agree with this statement, there are lots of incentives for people to keep their girls. I’m not sure abandonment is down as much as we are being led to believe, but I do agree that abandonments are happening in some areas less than they did in the past.)
Some orphanages still have many children. The agency reporting seems to think that in some cases this is because the orphanage directors saw other orphanage directors face severe punishment in the Hunan scandal. (We’ve talked about this as well, that some directors are now afraid to send paperwork because of the way the directors were treated in the Hunan scandal. I’m told the CCAA smoothed that over by issuing clear procedures, and assuring directors that if the procedures were followed as outlined then the directors could not be prosecuted later. But, maybe some of them weren’t convinced.)
Some orphanage directors do keep kids just to keep the orphanage open, or to keep receiving government funding. But some orphanage directors are acting in the best interest of the children in their care and are working to place all of the children that they can place. (I agree with this statement, too. Some orphanages are overflowing, some are almost empty. I’ll also say that some are widely using foster care, too.)
The Civil Affairs Ministry began requiring police reports documetning a child’s abandonment status and this has caused more work for the SWI’s and the local police departments. (We’ve talked about this as well, after the Hunan scandal some rules were changed, and one of them was that an abandoned child had to have a police report when found or they could not be adopted internationally.)
Domestic adoption is up. The average “donation” paid for a domestic adoption is close to $6,000. Plus the costs to prepare paperwork are not as expensive. (I’m not sure this is the case in all provinces, as I’m aware of an orphanage where the total costs to adopt domestically are around 2500 yuan which is around $330. Perhaps the higher fee involves those who go through the CCAA instead of going straight to the orphanage? I’m sure that $6,000 is there in some cases or the agency would not have reported it. It really bothers me that there seems to be this “competition” between domestic and IA though. If domestic adoption can handle the orphan population then there should not be IA. If domestic can not, then there should be IA. And cost should not come into play. From what I’ve been told, domestic adoption is indeed up, but not in enough numbers come close to emptying the orphanages, so IA is still needed. Both should be able to co-exist without monetary competition. )
In regards to the Olympics, the agency feels that China is of the mind to just not rock the boat about anything until the Olympics are over. Their priority is to finish the Olympics with no problems cropping up. They are not going to try to force an SWI to send files now because it’s safer to do nothing and not risk drawing negative attention to the program. (While I personally think the Olympics are playing a larger role in the slowdown, I appreciate that perhaps the role is more subtle. This agency’s statement is actually better than my own thoughts, because in my version there is no reason to try to improve things once the Olympics are over. In this version there seems to be a possibility that things may improve after the Olympics.)
The agency feels that the CCAA does care about the wait, but they are not as powerful as we think they are. They are at the mercy of the provinces and orphanages right now, they get whatever is sent to them and cannot demand more. (I’m still digesting this one. What I’ve heard previously is that the CCAA has their hands tied by the higher ups telling them what they can and can’t do. This version has their hands tied by the orphanages and provinces. The end result is the same though, the CCAA is doing the best they can and they are not the bad guy.)
The CCAA was created in 1996 with a workload of 3,000 placements a year. China wanted to send less babies than South Korea and Russia. In 1997 the CCAA placed more than South Korea and there were discussions about it. China became proud that families liked their children, and the number was raised to more than 10,000. (Yes, and from what I heard someone changed their mind about the “pride” part of that back in 2005 and thus things started slowing down. )
China is the only country who places mostly abandoned children. Other countries place children with known birth parents or extended families. As China develops, their IA program may evolve into a system similar to that of other countries. This will likely take a while, but there is a good chance that it will happen.(Wow. That is completely new information. And could be a very big deal.)
Families who do not mind waiting will get a referral. The wait will be four years, worst case scenario. The agency is clear that they trust these statements. (I completely believe the first part, that if you are prepared to wait you’ll eventually get a referral (assuming you are still eligible when the time comes.) I do not think that the CCAA or China plans to completely stop the program any time soon. However, I wonder how they can be sure about a worst case scenario. That being said, my own feelings have been that the worst is probably going to be somewhere around the four year mark as well. The math can (and does) take us much farther, but I just can’t bring myself to believe that it will go much over four to four and a half years. )
I think I’ve hit all of the main points. Most of it is stuff we’ve been over dozens of times before, but it is nice to have a respected agency put their two cents in.


I think that the only truly new “news” is the future possibility of China allowing children with known families to be adopted.


The four year maximum thing has come to us a few times before, so it’s not brand new, but having this particular affirmation of that does give it more weight (to me, at least).

Courtney--- Well, on 11-13-07 we will have one year down, with a possible three more to go.